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The Nashville housing market in 2019, according to a new study


Predictions always have to be taken with a grain of salt — “the future’s not set,” Terminator 2 told us in 1991? But professional real estate prognosticators use a mix of key data and past trends when they’re pulling together forecasts, and even if they’re not 100 percent perfect, they usually have some worthwhile wisdom to consider.

So chief economist Danielle Hale’s thoughts on the coming year in U.S. real estate might give you a few pieces of info to chew on, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Nashville in the coming months.

The newly released 2019 National Housing Forecast offers this overall perspective:

— home prices are expected to continue to grow, but with the pace slowing
— home inventory will continue to increase
— millennial homebuyers will make up the bulk of new mortgages
— but expected mortgage rate increases may make home ownership a tougher slog for many younger people

The basic headline: It’s expected to remain a seller’s market across the United States, but home sales will likely not be quite as frenzied as they’ve been over the past few years.


The market news in Nashville

Although it’s largely expected that the Nashville real estate market trends in 2019 will have a lot in common with the national trends, the report does think we’ll stand out in one specific place: high-end home inventory.

This probably won’t surprise anyone who lives in Nashville and sees high-end new construction still busily popping up across town. But the 2019 National Housing Forecast predicts that Nashville will be one of a few high-growth markets that’ll show astronomical inventory growth, likely in the double digits, on the higher end of home listings.

We’re in good (and expected) company there — Seattle, Boston, San Jose and Santa Clara are among the other metros expected to show massive high-end inventory growth in 2019.

Overall, the expectation for home price growth in Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tennessee: 6.9 percent. That’s significantly higher than what’s expected in much of the country — the overall home price growth forecast is 2.2 percent. And the study notes that predictions were compiled before Amazon’s HQ2 announcement, which is expected to impact housing markets, especially where Amazon’s rooting. And Amazon is opening a logistics hub in Nashville. So we’ll see if and how that nudges things.


What does this all mean?

These, of course, are predictions, so what the expectations “mean” kind of depends. But if you’re trying to figure out whether it’s a good time to sell or buy a home in Nashville, the basic takeaways:

— If you’re a potential seller, and your property isn’t in a more entry-level price range, don’t expect a whipcrack-fast sale. More inventory tends to mean more competition, and longer stretches on the market. If you’re in a hurry, expect to adjust your price to sell.

— If you’re a potential buyer, you can likely expect a lot more options on the high end, but still a tight inventory on the entry level. And with mortgage rate and home prices expected to continue to increase, expect things to get more expensive as time goes on… just likely not as swiftly as the past few years.



If you’re interested, read the full 2019 National Housing Forecast here.

Real estate market conditions change all the time, and predictions obviously aren’t gospel. If you have questions or concerns about whether now is the right time to buy a home in Nashville or sell a home in Nashville, we’re always happy to talk with you about your specific home, or your specific needs, to give you a sense of what to expect and what the best moves to make might be.

Reach ACRE here, and let us know what you’re thinking about — we’d love to help. And if you’d like to see what the local housing market looks like right now, check out some Nashville homes for sale here.

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